The Rising Risks of Cholera in Pakistan’s “Flood of the Century”

August 15th, 2010

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What Is Being Done To Prevent Cholera?

To prevent the many deaths from Cholera, researchers have been working many decades towards the development of a Cholera vaccine. However, until very recently, the most effective vaccines have produced an immunity that lasted only months. Such short-lived vaccination effectiveness has meant that retaining immunity in the population was not feasible.

The good, but not immediately relevant news is that a more recent vaccine that finished trials late in 2009 achieved 70 percent protection for a duration of roughly 2 years following inoculation. For those in Pakistan, this very recent development will have no benefit, as widespread vaccination programs have not even started. Even if initiated immediately, vaccinations of such a massive population would take a very long time.

How Will Cholera Affect The People Of Pakistan?

In a normal flood situation where people are able to get to high ground out of the water and are able to access clean drinking water and food, the risks of Cholera are not high. However, in Pakistan, 4700 villages have been washed away and 7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Overall, 20 million are affected. As well, 80% of drinking water wells in some areas are contaminated or destroyed. Likewise, with no way to get out of the water in many areas, people are forced to defecate in open areas and this can also contribute to the contamination of the water to help Cholera spread.

Though the numbers of people affected by Cholera has been very low so far, the risks continue to climb as the water levels remain high and so many people remain displaced living in unhygienic conditions. Attempts to provide relief to these people will require significant resources and will still take considerable time meaning that the risks for a Cholera pandemic will get worse before they get better. To best address the situation, Pakistan needs to rapidly mobilize its own people to help its own people simply because so many are affected by the flood and could face Cholera risks so quickly. While international aid can help longer term, a mobilized Pakistan and a string of sunny days is what the country really needs.